PacPalBuzz
04-04-2005, 12:43 AM
<< Subject: pot odds
From: "bumble" anonymous@aol.com
Date: Wed, Jul 23, 2003 12:40
Message-id: <3f1ef2b3$0$39738$9a6e19ea@news.newshosting.com> >>
“sorry to open this can of worms again but i think there is still a lot to be
discussed: four cards to a nut flush with the turn and river to come.”
Bumble - If you don’t fully understand this topic, then I agree you still need
to deal with it. At any rate I feel as though I do have a very good handle on
this topic - so perhaps I can make it clear to you.
“when reckoning if you have the correct pot odds to call a bet should you base
this on approx 4:1 to make it on the turn or 2:1 to make it by the river? by my
way of thinking if you use 2:1 then you are making a mistake because what you
are in fact calculating is the odds of you making your hand by the river for
the cost of a single bet when you may well have to pay to see the river. you
may also find that after the turn, pot odds do not justify calling another bet
at 4:1 so you fold. if you base your odds on two cards then you have to see
them and in this situation it is not sure to happen.”
You should use the approximately 4:1 next card only value rather than the
approximately 2:1 either of the next two cards value.
Allow me to repeat that statement.
You should use the approximately
4:1 next card only value
rather than the approximately
2:1 either of the next two cards value.
For the purpose of figuring whether or not you have correct odds, think of the
second betting round and the third betting round as two separate events.
The 2nd and 3rd betting rounds are not exactly two separate events, because
what you do on the 2nd betting round may (probably does) affect the way your
opponents behave on the third betting round. However, for the purpose of
figuring whether or not you have correct odds, think of them as two separate
events.
When you call on the second betting round, think of it in much the same way as
buying a state lottery ticket in June. You will either win or lose with the
June ticket. When your June lottery ticket doesn’t have a winning number on it,
then you have lost your June bet on the lottery. It doesn’t matter much that if
nobody else wins and thus there is more money in the lottery for the month of
July. You *lost* the money you invested in the lottery ticket in June. You can
make buy another lottery ticket in July and if you’re allowed to choose your
own numbers for the lottery ticket, then you can choose the very same numbers
again. However, regardless of what happens in July, your June lottery ticket
lost - and consequently the money you invested on the lottery in June is not
your money any more.
In much the same way, when you put a chip into the pot on the second betting
round, if a card you need to turn your hand into a winner does not appear on
the turn, then you have lost your second round bet. Regardless of what happens
next, you have lost that bet. Yes, I realize nobody has yet claimed the money
in the pot, and thus you still have a chance to win the money in the pot - but
when you think in terms of having correct odds or not on a particular betting
round, think of the money you have put into the pot on previous betting rounds
as money that is not yours any longer.
Thus whatever you invest on the third betting round is separate from what you
invest on the second betting round. It’s like buying a new lottery ticket in
July after losing in June - and choosing the same numbers that lost in June for
the ticket you buy in July.
Two separate bets. The July lottery ticket is a separate bet from the June
lottery ticket. The money invested on the third betting round is a separate bet
from the money invested on the second betting round. At any rate, think of it
that way.
When you need a card of a certain suit to make a flush, then you can make a
second betting round bet on your chances of catching a card of that suit on the
turn. If you don't catch a card you need on the turn, then you have lost your
bet on the second betting round. At any rate, *think* of your second round bet
in that fashion.
“looking at it another way, if we managed to get an opponent to bet in this
situation when they were only getting pot odds of say 2.5:1 would we not be
congratulating ourselves on having forced a mistake?”
I wouldn’t exactly be congratulating myself - but yes, an opponent would be
making a mistake on the second betting round if the odds against making his
hand were 4:1 and the implied pot odds he was getting were only 2.5:1.
Hope this makes it clear to you.
Buzz
From: "bumble" anonymous@aol.com
Date: Wed, Jul 23, 2003 12:40
Message-id: <3f1ef2b3$0$39738$9a6e19ea@news.newshosting.com> >>
“sorry to open this can of worms again but i think there is still a lot to be
discussed: four cards to a nut flush with the turn and river to come.”
Bumble - If you don’t fully understand this topic, then I agree you still need
to deal with it. At any rate I feel as though I do have a very good handle on
this topic - so perhaps I can make it clear to you.
“when reckoning if you have the correct pot odds to call a bet should you base
this on approx 4:1 to make it on the turn or 2:1 to make it by the river? by my
way of thinking if you use 2:1 then you are making a mistake because what you
are in fact calculating is the odds of you making your hand by the river for
the cost of a single bet when you may well have to pay to see the river. you
may also find that after the turn, pot odds do not justify calling another bet
at 4:1 so you fold. if you base your odds on two cards then you have to see
them and in this situation it is not sure to happen.”
You should use the approximately 4:1 next card only value rather than the
approximately 2:1 either of the next two cards value.
Allow me to repeat that statement.
You should use the approximately
4:1 next card only value
rather than the approximately
2:1 either of the next two cards value.
For the purpose of figuring whether or not you have correct odds, think of the
second betting round and the third betting round as two separate events.
The 2nd and 3rd betting rounds are not exactly two separate events, because
what you do on the 2nd betting round may (probably does) affect the way your
opponents behave on the third betting round. However, for the purpose of
figuring whether or not you have correct odds, think of them as two separate
events.
When you call on the second betting round, think of it in much the same way as
buying a state lottery ticket in June. You will either win or lose with the
June ticket. When your June lottery ticket doesn’t have a winning number on it,
then you have lost your June bet on the lottery. It doesn’t matter much that if
nobody else wins and thus there is more money in the lottery for the month of
July. You *lost* the money you invested in the lottery ticket in June. You can
make buy another lottery ticket in July and if you’re allowed to choose your
own numbers for the lottery ticket, then you can choose the very same numbers
again. However, regardless of what happens in July, your June lottery ticket
lost - and consequently the money you invested on the lottery in June is not
your money any more.
In much the same way, when you put a chip into the pot on the second betting
round, if a card you need to turn your hand into a winner does not appear on
the turn, then you have lost your second round bet. Regardless of what happens
next, you have lost that bet. Yes, I realize nobody has yet claimed the money
in the pot, and thus you still have a chance to win the money in the pot - but
when you think in terms of having correct odds or not on a particular betting
round, think of the money you have put into the pot on previous betting rounds
as money that is not yours any longer.
Thus whatever you invest on the third betting round is separate from what you
invest on the second betting round. It’s like buying a new lottery ticket in
July after losing in June - and choosing the same numbers that lost in June for
the ticket you buy in July.
Two separate bets. The July lottery ticket is a separate bet from the June
lottery ticket. The money invested on the third betting round is a separate bet
from the money invested on the second betting round. At any rate, think of it
that way.
When you need a card of a certain suit to make a flush, then you can make a
second betting round bet on your chances of catching a card of that suit on the
turn. If you don't catch a card you need on the turn, then you have lost your
bet on the second betting round. At any rate, *think* of your second round bet
in that fashion.
“looking at it another way, if we managed to get an opponent to bet in this
situation when they were only getting pot odds of say 2.5:1 would we not be
congratulating ourselves on having forced a mistake?”
I wouldn’t exactly be congratulating myself - but yes, an opponent would be
making a mistake on the second betting round if the odds against making his
hand were 4:1 and the implied pot odds he was getting were only 2.5:1.
Hope this makes it clear to you.
Buzz