Bad Bob
04-04-2005, 12:43 AM
On 23 Jul 2003 21:42:55 GMT, stating the obvious
<infrontofyournose@aol.com> wrote:
>rerun warning: here comes a rerun:
>
>Within the past few years, there was apparently a case of a hand being
>duplicated,
>that is, the exact same cards being dealt to all players, and the same
>board, at one of the most frequented poker sites.
>
>There was some heat & renown around this incident, because a player
>discovered it, and retained the hand histories, and tried to blackmail
>the company. Someone suprisingly, the company publicly confirmed that
>the same hand had been dealt twice, during a tournament, and that a user
>had discovered it. It was the company's story in fact, that had the
>user attempting to use the information to blackmail the company for
>money.
>
>Any one care to venture on what the odds are, of a hand being repeated,
>assuming 10 players at the tables? There likely would be 10 players,
>since the hand could not be repeated with different numbers of players
>at the two tables which were served up the copy cards. That makes a
>distribution of 25 viewed cards, after the river.
>
>The odds of a copy hand would be 25!, or 1 in
>15,511,210,043,330,985,984,000,000.
>
>If you want to assume that the burn cards were repeated as well, you can
>multiply that number by 26*27*28, or by 19,656.
>
>While it's possible for online shuffles to be "much more random" than
>live B/M games, it's highly unlikely that they are.
>
That is all very nice... and I accept that what you wrote is the
truth, although I have seen no proof of it. (The duplicate consecutive
hand histories).
But in order for that to prove what you are eluding to, wouldn't this
have to happen at least twice? Then there is the matter of having too
small an example of it happening, and we would have to wait for it to
occur several more times to have a statistically significant sample...
No matter how large the odds against something... it can still happen
can't it, without there being any defect in the shuffle etc.?
So the impossible really is possible... right?
-- Bad Bob the Albino
email: badbob@blueflintcat.us
WWW.BLUEFLINTCAT.US/RGPFAQ/
Home of: "FAQ (rec.gambling.poker)for New Poker Players"
<infrontofyournose@aol.com> wrote:
>rerun warning: here comes a rerun:
>
>Within the past few years, there was apparently a case of a hand being
>duplicated,
>that is, the exact same cards being dealt to all players, and the same
>board, at one of the most frequented poker sites.
>
>There was some heat & renown around this incident, because a player
>discovered it, and retained the hand histories, and tried to blackmail
>the company. Someone suprisingly, the company publicly confirmed that
>the same hand had been dealt twice, during a tournament, and that a user
>had discovered it. It was the company's story in fact, that had the
>user attempting to use the information to blackmail the company for
>money.
>
>Any one care to venture on what the odds are, of a hand being repeated,
>assuming 10 players at the tables? There likely would be 10 players,
>since the hand could not be repeated with different numbers of players
>at the two tables which were served up the copy cards. That makes a
>distribution of 25 viewed cards, after the river.
>
>The odds of a copy hand would be 25!, or 1 in
>15,511,210,043,330,985,984,000,000.
>
>If you want to assume that the burn cards were repeated as well, you can
>multiply that number by 26*27*28, or by 19,656.
>
>While it's possible for online shuffles to be "much more random" than
>live B/M games, it's highly unlikely that they are.
>
That is all very nice... and I accept that what you wrote is the
truth, although I have seen no proof of it. (The duplicate consecutive
hand histories).
But in order for that to prove what you are eluding to, wouldn't this
have to happen at least twice? Then there is the matter of having too
small an example of it happening, and we would have to wait for it to
occur several more times to have a statistically significant sample...
No matter how large the odds against something... it can still happen
can't it, without there being any defect in the shuffle etc.?
So the impossible really is possible... right?
-- Bad Bob the Albino
email: badbob@blueflintcat.us
WWW.BLUEFLINTCAT.US/RGPFAQ/
Home of: "FAQ (rec.gambling.poker)for New Poker Players"