New player, looking for help getting started

[Jon]

Hi, I'm new to the world of poker. I have some basic experience with
regular poker, but no table experience with Hold 'em. I plan on playing
Limit Hold 'em. If anyone has any good resources for new players, I'd
appreciate seeing them. I'm mainly interested in probability based
calculations. I've found a few links through other posts here, but nothing
that gives a good complete rundown.

Any help is appreciated.

[Ken Lovering]

Go to Googles and do an advanced search. Click on for in poker group only
first. I just did it with only odds in the subject and got over 110,000
threads.
You can narrow that down with Pot Odds, Implied odds etc.

Good Luck
Ken
"Jon" <mr_t_88@nospamplz--yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:Gjb3b.854056$ro6.16920043@news2.calgary.shaw.ca...
> Hi, I'm new to the world of poker. I have some basic experience with
> regular poker, but no table experience with Hold 'em. I plan on playing
> Limit Hold 'em. If anyone has any good resources for new players, I'd
> appreciate seeing them. I'm mainly interested in probability based
> calculations. I've found a few links through other posts here, but
nothing
> that gives a good complete rundown.
>
> Any help is appreciated.
>
>

[JMBCV]

You should buy Mike Petriv's Holdem's Odd(s) Book.

[joefo]

"Ken Lovering" <taintedrogue@adelphia.net> wrote in message news:<bijl50$a2eco$1@ID-196892.news.uni-berlin.de>...
> Go to Googles and do an advanced search. Click on for in poker group only
> first. I just did it with only odds in the subject and got over 110,000
> threads.
> You can narrow that down with Pot Odds, Implied odds etc.
>
> Good Luck
> Ken
> "Jon" <mr_t_88@nospamplz--yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:Gjb3b.854056$ro6.16920043@news2.calgary.shaw.ca...
> > Hi, I'm new to the world of poker. I have some basic experience with
> > regular poker, but no table experience with Hold 'em. I plan on playing
> > Limit Hold 'em. If anyone has any good resources for new players, I'd
> > appreciate seeing them. I'm mainly interested in probability based
> > calculations. I've found a few links through other posts here, but
> nothing
> > that gives a good complete rundown.
> >
> > Any help is appreciated.


You might want to read some of the poker books for beginners. "Winning
Low Limit Hold-Em" by Lee Jones is a good start. "Hold-Em Excellence" by
Lou Krieger was also helpful to me.

Jo
> >
> >

[Gary Carson]

Here, bookmark this
from The Complete Book of Hold'em Poker, used by permission.

Permission is granted to reproduce for personal use only, all
distribution rights (other than usenet distribution) are reserved.



Chapter 11

Betting Theory: The Odds


Before you bet, check, call, or raise, you should have a reason.
Often, if you ask a player why they bet in a certain situation,
they'll say something like, "I thought I had the best hand." Although
that's probably the most common reason people bet, it's almost
never a good enough reason to bet.

Your reason for betting should be about the expected result from
betting. What's going to happen when you bet? How does that result
compare to what will happen if you don't bet?

The typical reason to bet or raise is to simply get more money in the
pot. The situations where you want to get more money in the pot
depend on the odds - both of the odds of your hand winning and of the
money odds. If the odds of your hand winning are greater then the
money odds from a bet, then you'll profit by betting. Before we get
into the ideas and theories of betting, I need to discuss the
different kinds of odds you need to consider when thinKing about a
bet.

Money odds

The concept of money odds is often confusing to beginning poker
players. It's really not that difficult: At any given point in the
play of the hand there are three sources of money, and each needs to
be considered separately. There's money that's already in the
pot. That's called "pot odds". There's money that's going into the
pot in the current betting round. I call that "bet odds". And,
there's money that will be going into the pot on future betting
rounds. That's called "implied odds".

Past pot odds
Current bet odds
Future implied odds

All of these money sources are important, but their importance needs
to be considered in different ways.

Pot odds

Pot odds are an important consideration when you're deciding whether
to call with a hand that's probably not the best hand. Pot odds are
just the ratio of the amount of the current bet to the amount of money
already in the pot. For example, if five people called before the
flop, on the flop one person bet and one has called, then there are
seven bets in the pot and you are getting 7-1 odds to call. You also
need to keep in mind that if a player behind you raises then your pot
odds will be cut almost in half.

Let's say your hand is 8s7s and the flop is 9h 5c 2d. Should you
call?

This is an example of when pot odds are important. You've got an
inside-straight draw on the flop. Any 6 will make you a straight, and
the flop does not have two of any one suit so it's not possible for a
6 to make someone else a flush.

There are 47 unseen cards, and the next card is equally likely to be
any one of them. You have 4 "outs", which is just another way of
saying that 4 out of the 47 will make your straight, 43 don't help
you. So, the odds against maKing you maKing a straight on the next
card are 43-4, or about 11-1. For every time you make the straight
there will be about eleven times you don't make it. With 7-1 pot
odds, the pot is probably not large enough for a call. If the pot had
eleven bets in it, and you're reasonably sure that you won't be raised
after you call, you should call a bet to draw one card to an inside
straight.

To evaluate your hand in terms of pot odds you need to keep track of
the size of the pot. When you're keeping track of the money going
into the pot, it's usually easier to just count the number of bets and
calls rather than the total amount of money. If ten bets have been
put into the pot and you're now considering calling a bet and a raise
(two bets) then you're getting pot odds of 5-1. At the turn, when the
betsize doubles, just divide the count of the number of bets in the
pot by two to put the pot-odds calculations in terms of the new
betsize.

Pot odds are important anytime you're considering a call, not just
when you're on a draw and have more cards to come. Pot odds should
also be taken into consideration whenever you have a mediocre hand and
someone bets on the river. By this point in the betting the pot odds
are often very large, and you need to compare the pot odds to your
estimate that a player is bluffing or is betting a mediocre hand
slightly worse than your hand. In many cases the pot will be large
enough to be worth a call even if the chances of a bluff are very
small.

Bet odds

The odds on the current bet are important when deciding to bet or
raise. It just depends on the number of callers. It's much more
difficult to estimate the pot odds because you need to anticipate the
number of callers. Raises from players still to act don't
cut down your bet odds, however, except to the extent that a raise
might cause a potential caller to fold.

Bet odds are an often ignored part of poker theory. Most books just
suggest you should bet or raise whenever you probably have the best
hand, but if that's the only time you bet or raise then you're missing
out on a lot of potential profit.

You should bet or raise whenever the odds you're getting on the bet
(the number of callers) is greater than the odds your hand will end up
the best hand. Throughout the rest of the book, I'll be showing you
how to determine this in various situations.

Implied odds

Implied odds are an important consideration anytime you have action
to take - whether it's calling or betting. Implied odds can be very
difficult to estimate, however, because it involves estimating what
will happen on future betting rounds.

In the inside-straight draw example I used when discussing pot odds
above, the existence of implied odds suggests you can call with a draw
to hands like an inside straight even though the pot isn't offering
you sufficient odds. In the example the pot was giving you 7-1 odds
and you were 11-1 against maKing your hand on the next card. But if
you make your hand on the next card, you'll likely win more than just
what's in the pot now.

If you know, for example, that the bettor will bet again on the turn,
will call a raise, and will call a bet on the river, then you're
getting implied odds of 6-1 (bets on the turn and
river are twice the size of the bet you have to call on the flop).
That would mean you'd only need pot odds of about 5-1 to combine with
your implied odds to give you good enough odds to draw to an inside
straight. Of course, there is also some chance that you'll make your
straight and still lose, so I'd usually want the pot to be giving me
something like 9-1 to compensate for those times.

It's also important to consider the implied odds that other players
likely have. Drawing hands have high implied odds because they will
win extra bets if the hand is made but will not lose any extra bets if
the hand misses.

However, you need to be careful not to over estimate your implied
odds by counting on future calls that might not materialize. Flush
draws are an example of hands that often don't have as high implied
odds as you might think. Many players will slow down and check when a
third flush card hits the board, but they'll bet when a third card to
a straight shows. The flush is just more obvious and you often should
not count on being able to raise. Luckily, you are usually getting
sufficient pot odds to draw to a flush and don't need to count on
implied odds. As a general rule, it's often right to accept pot odds
just a notch or two less than ignoring implied odds would suggest.

Reasons to bet

Before you take any action on a hand, have a reason. Make a plan.
There are generally two situations when you want to bet -- one is when
you have the probable best hand and the other is when you have a good
draw. These are situations where you'll probably want to bet, but
they aren't the reason to bet. The reasons to bet involve the
odds, either pot odds, bet odds, or implied odds, depending on the
particular situation.

When you have the probable best hand

There is no universal way to determine the likelihood that you have
the best hand. For purposes of this discussion we can just think of
the top pair as the probable best hand. Top pair is when one of the
cards in your hand matches the highest card on the board.

Whenever you bet or raise with the best hand, you're reducing the pot
odds your opponent is getting. For example, let's say you have A*A*
and your opponent has K* Q* with a flop of K* T* 6*. Your opponent
will likely bet, thinKing he has the best hand. Let's say the pot has
five bets in it before your opponent bets. Now, if you call, then
your opponent is getting 6-1 odds to try to outdraw you. The 6-1
comes from 5-1 on the pot odds and even money on your call of his bet.

If you raise, however, your opponents odds are cut from 6-1 down to
3.5-1 (or 7-2, five bets already in the pot plus your two bets,
compared to the two bets he has to put in the pot).

The odds of him getting a King or a Queen on the next card to improve
to a better hand than your pair of aces are 8-1, (that's rounded off
a little, six of the forty-five unknown cards will improve his hand).
The astute reader might notice that I'm ignoring flush and straight
possibilities. I'm doing that for convenience only, although slight,
those chances should be included in a complete analysis.

Whenever the money odds your opponent is getting are less then the
odds he has of improving, he is losing money. That means you gain
money. You would profit in this situation if you only called. His
bet was a mistake and you profit from it, but you profit even more by
raising and reducing his money odds. Note that you're not raising
because you have the best hand. Although you do have the best hand,
you're raising because you profit from reducing your opponent's money
odds.

The dreaded free card

One of the things you want to avoid is giving your opponents a free
chance to beat you. That's equivalent to giving infinite odds. Let's
say you have J*J* and the flop is 9* 7* 3*. You probably have the
best hand and there are some important reasons to bet here. What if
your opponent has two hearts? Or T*9*? Or A*7* or 6*8*? A player
with any of these holdings has a draw to beat you. Make them pay to
try. If you bet, they are probably getting the correct odds to call,
but if you don't bet, you're giving them infinite odds. You can't
give away gifts like that very often and expect to be a winning
poker player. Note, however, that we're talKing about a single
opponent. When you have four or five opponents who call, you may not
have such a good hand. Later in a chapter we'll look at an example of
this hand, this flop, and four opponents when you not might not
profit from a bet, you should consider folding if someone else bets
and a couple of other players are calling or raising. The perspective
you need to take when evaluating a hand on the flop is different when
you have multiple opponents than when you have a single opponent.

Betting to keep from giving up a free card can be even more important
when you're not sure you have the best hand. For example, let's say
you're on the big blind with a hand like 9* 4* and no one raised
before the flop. The flop is Q* 4* 2*. What should you do?

You should probably bet. You might not have the best hand. Someone
may have a Queen, but you're not sure, and the danger of that is not
nearly as large as the danger of giving someone with a hand like 10*
8* or 7* 6* a free chance to beat you. If you do have the best hand
and check, then a lot of cards could come on the turn that will give
someone a better pair than your measly pair of 4s. Also by betting
you might get someone with a better hand, like 8* 8*, to fold.

In the same flop, but with a hand like Q* 7* it's not nearly as
important to bet. In fact, with that hand you probably shouldn't bet.
The reason is that with this hand you still might not have the best
hand but, if you do, then it isn't likely that the next card can hurt
you. By checKing you are giving your opponents a chance of a free
card that will make them a second best hand, not a best hand. You
also may encourage someone with a hand like 8* 8* to bet and you
aren't risking a raise in case you're hand isn't best.

Think about these two examples. In the second one we are more likely
to have the best hand, but it's the first case, when we aren't sure at
all that we have the best hand, that's it's important to bet. The
free card concept is a much more important concept in deciding whether
or not to bet than whether or not you have the best hand.

Check-raising

Because the nature of fixed-limit Hold 'Em makes calling one bet
often correct for very weak hands, it's difficult to protect your
hand. A major weapon you have to protect your hand is check-raising,
however, you must be conscious of where you think the bettor
will be. Typically, if you had a made (but vulnerable) hand you would
check in early position if you thought there would be a bet in late
position: you then raise and the players in between face two bets plus
a risk of a reraise by the late position player, maKing it difficult
for them to call. If you have an invulnerable hand that you want to
make everyone pay you through the nose for, then you would check in
early position if you thought there would be an early position bet,
and then you would raise after everyone trailed in calling behind.
The down-side of check-raising is that you risk giving a free card
if no one bets. The consideration of who the likely bettor will be is
a very important concept when considering a check-raise, especially so
in loose games.

Raising to thin the field

There is a popular misconception that a primary purpose of raising
before the flop is to drive other players out of the pot - to limit
the field. It's an idea that just keeps getting repeated over and
over again in poker books - a mantra to soothe the soul. Iit's an
idea that's just wrong.

So far, I haven't found a single Hold 'Em book that doesn't suggest
someplace in the book that you should raise with a hand like A*A* if
your raise will cause others to fold. The idea they all express is
that if you can reduce the number of opponents you'll increase your
chances of winning the pot.

Well, that idea is right. Fewer opponents do mean you have a greater
chance of winning the pot. That's true whether your hand is A*A* or
7*2*. Poker isn't about winning pots - it's about winning money.
And, with a very strong hand like A*A*, you'll win the most money
when you have as many callers as you can get.

Semi-bluffs

In most cases, aggressive play is winning play. You should
constantly be applying pressure to the other players to give them
tough decisions to make. You may reraise when you think you're either
beaten badly or your opponent is bluffing. Bluffing and semi-
bluffing are important to keep yourself unpredictable, and since
you're keeping track of the ranges of plausible hands, it's quite
likely you'll often know where your opponent stands. Cold bluffing is
usually restricted to the river, where you might bet into one or two
opponents (who might fold) if you have no chance of winning the pot at
a showdown. Semi-bluffing is betting with a hand that is not likely
best but has some big outs. Your opponent may fold immediately, and
if not, you may hit your out and your opponent may seriously misread
you. There is an important balance here, you must have sufficiently
tight hand selection criteria such that when you do bet your opponent
is positively terrified that you may have a big hand like an overpair.
Semi-bluffing is very powerful, because you've been so careful in
choosing your starting hands that even if you aren't there yet, you
are likely to get there.

Value bets

A "value bet" is a term used for betting when you just think you have
the best hand, but best hand is a broad concept with a definition
that's dependent on the situation.

Value bets on the river

Once all the cards have been dealt, it's easy to fall into the trap
of thinKing that all that matters now is who has ended up with the
best hand. Even here, having the best hand is not a reason to bet.
Let's say you have a small pair, maybe a hand like A*4* and the
board is Q* T* 5* 7* 4*.

It's possible you have the best hand - maybe your opponent might have
a K*J* and have been drawing to a straight, for example. Even if
you're 90 percent sure that's the hand he has, you probably shouldn't
bet. The relevant question isn't whether you have the best hand, it's
whether you have the best hand if he calls. If so, then a bet by you
would be a value bet.

Value bets with the best hand on intermediate rounds

On the river, the only consideration about the hand is the likelihood
that your opponent has a worse hand than yours and will call (or a
better hand and will fold). On intermediate rounds, when there are
more cards to come, it gets a little more complicated.

You have to consider not just the current strength of the hands, but
the drawing power of both your hand and your opponent's hands.

Value betting draws
It's common in Hold 'Em to have multiway situations on the flop where
the hand that is getting value from bets is the best draw, not the
best hand. For example, consider a four handed situation where the
players hold

Player 1 K* Q*
Player 2 A* 9*
Player 3 J* J*
Player 4 T* 8*
and the flop is 9* 7* 3*

The best hand is held by player 3, with a pair of Jacks, but the only
hand that will profit from a bet is player 1 - the flush draw. Any
heart, or any King, or any Queen will make player 1 the best hand.
That's fourteen cards if we look at all the hands. With three
callers, any hand that has a greater then 25 percent chance of
developing into the winning hand will profit from a bet or raise. In
the scenario above, the flush draw with the two overcards is the only
hand that has a winning potential higher than 25 percent.
The winning potentials are

Player 1 45%
Player 2 18%
Player 3 20%
Player 4 17%

We'll discuss this hand in a little more detail on the chapter on the
theory of flop play. For now, just realize that having the best hand
does not mean you have the best hand. By that, I mean the best poker
hand on the flop is not always favored to end up the best poker hand
by the river. What is most important is that the best hand is not
always favored to win the most money.




On Wed, 27 Aug 2003 23:40:22 GMT, "Jon" <mr_t_88@nospamplz--yahoo.com>
wrote:

>Hi, I'm new to the world of poker. I have some basic experience with
>regular poker, but no table experience with Hold 'em. I plan on
playing
>Limit Hold 'em. If anyone has any good resources for new players,
I'd
>appreciate seeing them. I'm mainly interested in probability based
>calculations. I've found a few links through other posts here, but
nothing
>that gives a good complete rundown.
>
>Any help is appreciated.
>
>

[Jeb Cline]

On Thu, 28 Aug 2003 19:14:53 GMT, garycarson@alumni.northwestern.edu
(Gary Carson) wrote:

>Here, bookmark this
>from The Complete Book of Hold'em Poker, used by permission.
>
>Permission is granted to reproduce for personal use only, all
>distribution rights (other than usenet distribution) are reserved.
>
>
>
>Chapter 11
>
>Betting Theory: The Odds
>
>
> Before you bet, check, call, or raise, you should have a reason.
>Often, if you ask a player why they bet in a certain situation,
>they'll say something like, "I thought I had the best hand." Although
>that's probably the most common reason people bet, it's almost
>never a good enough reason to bet....

(snip the rest)

Except for the part where you incorrectly state that you want as many
callers as possible with AA, this sounds exactly like warmed over
Sklansky to me.

[Gary Carson]

On Thu, 28 Aug 2003 23:02:26 -0700, Jeb Cline <JPC@harvard.edu> wrote:

>On Thu, 28 Aug 2003 19:14:53 GMT, garycarson@alumni.northwestern.edu
>(Gary Carson) wrote:
>
>>Here, bookmark this
>>from The Complete Book of Hold'em Poker, used by permission.
>>
>>Permission is granted to reproduce for personal use only, all
>>distribution rights (other than usenet distribution) are reserved.
>>
>>
>>
>>Chapter 11
>>
>>Betting Theory: The Odds
>>
>>
>> Before you bet, check, call, or raise, you should have a reason.
>>Often, if you ask a player why they bet in a certain situation,
>>they'll say something like, "I thought I had the best hand."
Although
>>that's probably the most common reason people bet, it's almost
>>never a good enough reason to bet....
>
>(snip the rest)
>
>Except for the part where you incorrectly state that you want as many
>callers as possible with AA, this sounds exactly like warmed over
>Sklansky to me.

I don't have the rights to post a chapter from a book Sklansky wrote.

I'll let somebody else explain why you want as many callers as you can
get with AA, or you could go back to one of the thousand or so
previous threads on the subject.

[Calahan MacCool]

Try

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com

Join for a month. See if you like it. It costs $14.95. Has various
courses, lectures and tests. Also has virtual money games that play
rather well considering it is fake money. The Krieger and Caro
material alone are worth the $14.95 a month for a few months.

Note on the Caro audio though: Mike, Material is great. Delivery is
less to be desired.

Once you get the basics down and start understanding the dynamics of
the game. Visit twoplustwo.com and start buying some of their books.
Easily the best books to stimulate your game thinking process, though
some of the books are a little dated. Most of the material is very
subtle and requires many readings. Skip Hold'em Poker and go right to
Hold'em poker for advanced players.

After you have digested all that, branch out to Cappelleti.
Cappelleti, I think is highly underated. He deals mainly with High
Limit Omaha. I use the Cappalleti Convention in bridge. It is
ingenious and down right diobolical at times.

Somewhere in there make sure to pick up a copy of Supersystem by Doyle
Brunson. It is very dated material yet still a must for anybody who
loves poker.

Now, for something very controversial .... Skip anything by Wilson
software. With the proliferation of online poker rooms with play
money tables. You'll be doing yourself a favor by not getting
distracted by their products. Their product is like waxed fruit. No
matter how good looking it is. It's inedible.

There ya go, that oughta take 3-4 years. Whatever ya do, save
yourself a small fortune and don't go by trial and error like most.

Oh, and Gary Carson. If you want me to tout your books too, you'll
simply have to send me a copy. I got myself broke in the $1-$2
Hold'em game last night.

Fialte

"Jon" <mr_t_88@nospamplz--yahoo.com> wrote in message news:<Gjb3b.854056$ro6.16920043@news2.calgary.shaw.ca>...
> Hi, I'm new to the world of poker. I have some basic experience with
> regular poker, but no table experience with Hold 'em. I plan on playing
> Limit Hold 'em. If anyone has any good resources for new players, I'd
> appreciate seeing them. I'm mainly interested in probability based
> calculations. I've found a few links through other posts here, but nothing
> that gives a good complete rundown.
>
> Any help is appreciated.

[Perry Friedman]

Why is there no mention of Implied Tilt Odds?

Perry

In article <3f4e5218.31900690@news.east.earthlink.net>,
Gary Carson <garycarson@alumni.northwestern.edu> wrote:
>Here, bookmark this
>from The Complete Book of Hold'em Poker, used by permission.
>
>Permission is granted to reproduce for personal use only, all
>distribution rights (other than usenet distribution) are reserved.
>
>
>
>Chapter 11
>
>Betting Theory: The Odds
>
....

>Money odds
....
>Pot odds
....
>Bet odds
....
>Implied odds

[isawred]

calahan@thefianna.org (Calahan MacCool) wrote in message news:<231db32c.0308290119.382c09b3@posting.google.com>...
\
> Oh, and Gary Carson. If you want me to tout your books too, you'll
> simply have to send me a copy. I got myself broke in the $1-$2
> Hold'em game last night.
>
> Fialte
>

This begs the question, why take advice from someone who goes broke in
a $1-$2 game? Instead, read Lee Jones "Winning Low Limit Holdem" and
once you know what you're doing, Sklansky's "Theory of Poker". (My
lack of comments on Carson's book is not because I am broke, but
rather because Amazon still hasn't shipped it (bastards). I can say
this though, when I have seen a serious post from Gary, it is always
solid advice. When he is not serious, he cracks me up. Either way, I
figure the book is worth it.)

[Calahan MacCool]

Lol

Yo r,
sofa king,
we tod id.


judahgap@hotmail.com (isawred) wrote in message news:<7d9f0f4d.0308291750.5027d04f@posting.google.com>...
> calahan@thefianna.org (Calahan MacCool) wrote in message news:<231db32c.0308290119.382c09b3@posting.google.com>...
> \
> > Oh, and Gary Carson. If you want me to tout your books too, you'll
> > simply have to send me a copy. I got myself broke in the $1-$2
> > Hold'em game last night.
> >
> > Fialte
> >
>
> This begs the question, why take advice from someone who goes broke in
> a $1-$2 game? Instead, read Lee Jones "Winning Low Limit Holdem" and
> once you know what you're doing, Sklansky's "Theory of Poker". (My
> lack of comments on Carson's book is not because I am broke, but
> rather because Amazon still hasn't shipped it (bastards). I can say
> this though, when I have seen a serious post from Gary, it is always
> solid advice. When he is not serious, he cracks me up. Either way, I
> figure the book is worth it.)